Do most pump.fun traders lose money?
71%
Most active wallets do, and that's before fees. Of the 244,739 wallets that closed 10 or more positions on pump.fun coins launched from 2026-10-01 to 2026-10-21, 71% ended down. About 5% made 10 SOL or more. Those numbers leave out fees, and they leave out the bags wallets never sold, so the real picture is worse.
71%
of active wallets ended down, before fees
60%
of closed positions lost money
5%
of active wallets made 10 SOL or more
2 min
the median position, first buy to last sell
How closed positions ended
By wallet
Wallets by how many positions they closed on these coins. Active or not, most end down.
| Closed positions | Wallets | Ended down | Made 1 SOL or more | Made 10 SOL or more | Made 100 SOL or more |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 or more | 577,923 | 71% | 12% | 3% | 0.2% |
| 10 or more | 244,739 | 71% | 15% | 5% | 0.5% |
| 25 or more | 126,388 | 69% | 19% | 8% | 1.0% |
How long positions last
What it means for you
- A winning trade isn't a winning month. 33% of positions made money, and 71% of active wallets still ended down.
- This is a fast game. Half of all positions are over in about 2 minutes, and it's played against software.
- These positions balance. On coins that weren't instant migrations, 18,535,631 SOL went in and 18,518,109 SOL came out. What one wallet makes, another lost, and fees sit on top.
How we measured it
- Every wallet's buys and sells on pump.fun and PumpSwap, on coins launched from 2026-10-01 to 2026-10-21, followed through 2026-10-29.
- A position is a wallet's holding of a coin, and it's closed when the wallet sold back 99% to 101% of the tokens it bought.
- Profit and loss is SOL out less SOL in, on coins priced in SOL, at the amounts the trades state. Pump's fees, priority fees and tips aren't in those amounts.
What it doesn't tell you
- Wallets aren't people, and many are bots. A small loss can be the cost of running a volume bot, not a bad trade.
- Bags are left out. 13% of positions never sold a token, and positions still partly held aren't counted, which flatters the result.
- Instant migrations are in. Without them, 68% of these wallets ended down.
The data
pump.fun positions and wallets, coins launched from 2026-10-01 to 2026-10-21. Free to use and share under CC BY 4.0: just say it came from Hidden Hand.
Cite this
Hidden Hand Research. "Do most pump.fun traders lose money?" Measured 2026-10-30. https://hiddenhand.trade/research/do-pump-fun-traders-lose-money
Keep digging
See it on live coins
All of this runs live in the panel, on whatever coin or wallet you're looking at. Free on the Chrome Web Store, no wallet needed.